Opinion: Be thoughtful in analyzing reports of realignment, conference breakups

Of course, that spawned the expenditure of billions of bits and bytes not only in the unsanctioned and wildly inaccurate blogosphere, but also hundreds of speculative articles, posts and bloviations speculating on everything from the makeup of modified conferences to the amount of money such moves might engender.

Unfortunately, none of that speculation had any facts behind it. The uproar, though, was significant enough to lead Alford to admit that discussion of potential ACC defections was “probably overblown” according to ESPN, while several other factors, such as the towering difficulty of breaking the grant of rights, were ignored.

Before we go any further, there’s no denying that a certain amount of speculation about conference realignment is entertaining. There have been a number of those, ranging from potential moves of a couple of schools to an entire teardown and rebuild of the major leagues, that all would be workable. However, framing those as having the slightest chance of possibility when media rights buyouts range in the eight or nine figures just isn’t feasible.

There’s no question that Alford’s statement was a negotiating ploy, meant to sway the ACC toward his preferred model of uneven revenue distribution of the ACC’s rights money, with “more successful” schools earning a higher percentage of the payouts. And it’s probably true that some of the schools wasted another unconscionable amount of money on a team of lawyers looking for some way to break the ACC’s grant of rights — an exercise that has probably been going on longer than the haggling over Britney Spears’ conservatorship. No loopholes or exit strategies have ever been found, though, and it’s unlikely that any will be.

The only way that the contract will be “broken” is via a negotiated settlement between those schools wanting to leave and those that stay. And it’s unlikely that the ACC would agree to much lessening of the reported $120 million buyout per school, because the departure of some members would likely trigger a reduction in the payout amounts to be made to the league if, for instance, Clemson and Florida State were no longer part of it.

And with that, almost all of the rest of the conversation and “reporting”, while perhaps as entertaining as your average MCU film, is just about as realistic.

Of course, none of this is going to stop the massive amount of speculation and the outpouring of content that results any time one hint of realignment or discord in a league occurs. However, for those that wish to assess the possibilities of such actions occurring, there are a few rules to follow.

1) Follow the money: If a school mentions any dissatisfaction with its current situation, does it have a landing place that will pay it more than what it is earning now? Will the rightsholders of that new destination pony up more money to meet the needs of the new school? Will the existing schools cut their payouts to welcome in a new member or members? If the answer to any of those questions are ‘No’, then stop now.

2) Size can matter: While the SEC and Big 10 are both going to be at 16 members soon, rule one stomps on this one. They’re making significantly more cash from their media rights (and tickets and donations and just about everything else), so no other rules or interior squabbles or unhappiness matters to them. But for everyone else, bigger isn’t always better. Remember the old Big East? The WAC\Mountain West? And now the ACC? Some, perhaps most, of the strife that caused the dissolution or massive restructuring of the first leagues on that list was simply caused by too many schools having too many differing agendas. Being bigger does not necessarily equate to being stronger, and certainly not more unified. If “reports” are pointing toward a 24-team conglomeration, it might be wise to perform more careful thought.

3) Pay attention to history: While things that happened in the past don’t always inform of what will happen in the future, there’s a good bit of value in studying it. Remember the thousands of articles and columns proclaiming the death of the Big 12 just a few years ago? Somehow, the league is still around, and is actually in pretty good shape in its current form. That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t always be looking at new options, but a league can’t make moves based on public opinion.

The next item to really watch isn’t the ACC meetings. It’s the ongoing media rights negotiations between the Pac-12 and broadcast/streaming entities. The per school payout of that deal, when it is finalized and proposed to league schools, could spur more departures or additions, as the members would have the ability to say no and depart with minimal penalties.